Dr David Malet1, Mr. William Arnold
1American University, Washington, United States
Biography:
David Malet is Associate Professor of Public Affairs at American University. Previously he served as Director of the Security Policy Studies Program at the George Washington University. He also taught at the University of Melbourne, and at Colorado State University, where he was Director of the Centre for the Study of Homeland Security. From 2000-2003 he served as Research Assistant for national security issues to US Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. He is a member of the Independent Review Panel of GCERF and is currently writing a report on international best practices in the reintegration of ISIS returnees.
Abstract:
This paper examines whether or not the battlefield successes of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria caused (ISIS) ‘ISIS-inspired’ attacks in the West. In the 2010s, Australia and other Western countries experienced an unprecedented wave of domestic attacks by supporters of ISIS. These terrorist attacks generated particular concern because the perpetrators were not formally connected with the group. One assumption by counterterrorism officials was that ISIS control of a de facto state gave it the resources and legitimacy to inspire lone actors and small cells to act autonomously.
To determine whether the status of ISIS inspired attacks by Western supporters, we utilised a dataset of ISIS-inspired attacks in the West and plotted these on a timeline of ISIS territorial control in Iraq and Syria. We found that ISIS was actually losing territory at the height of the ISIS-inspired attacks, and that ISIS battlefield success had no significant effect on ISIS-inspired attacks or their timing. There was also no conclusive evidence that attacks in the West orchestrated by ISIS, led to spikes in attacks inspired non-affiliated Western attacks. This suggests that radicalisation propaganda plays more of a role in inspiring attacks than whether a violent extremist group is winning.
Although the Islamic State organisation no longer controls territory in Iraq and Syria, ISIS-inspired attacks continue in Western countries, and the group continues to call for more. It is therefore important to identify which policy responses are more likely to be successful in preventing attacks.