Mrs Niloufar Baghernia1
1Australian National University, Acton, Australia
Biography:
Niloufar Baghernia is a PhD candidate in International Relations at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University (ANU). Her research focuses on international relations, with a particular emphasis on case studies involving Iran and China, and their dynamics in the Middle East. Niloufar has contributed to peer-reviewed journals, including her article titled "China's Marginal Involvement in the 2023 Iran-Saudi Arabia Reconciliation," published in Asian Affairs. She currently serves as a sessional tutor at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies and the ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences.
Abstract:
This research uses neoclassical realism to examine the Islamic Republic of Iran’s pivot towards China from 2005 to 2024. Iran’s shift towards China has resulted in both internal and external ramifications. Domestically, Iran has incorporated aspects of China’s economic model to endure the hurdles presented by international sanctions. This transition has bolstered the endurance of the authoritarian Islamic Republic in the Middle East, altering its foreign policy from "Neither East nor West" to "Look to the East," with an emphasis on China. In addition, this study contends that Iran’s support of China has facilitated the broader phenomenon of Asianisation, characterised by Asia’s emergence as the global economic and political hub. Iran has contributed to China’s rise via regional interdependence and exchanges in energy, economics, security, diplomacy, and culture. The rivalry between Iran and Arab countries has further strengthened the Asianisation process. The pivot towards China is influenced by both structural elements, like China’s rise, and internal considerations within Iran. Neoclassical realism offers significant insights into this realignment, utilising the paradigm established by Norrin Ripsman, Taliaferro, and Lobell’s Type III neoclassical realism. This study illustrates how the engagement between a middle power (Iran) and a great power (China) influences global transformations, rather than solely the interactions among great powers. It illustrates how Iran’s “Look to the East” grand strategy is transforming its domestic and international policies while enhancing China’s influence in Asianisation and the global transition to multipolarity.