Prof. Wesley Widmaier1
1Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
Abstract:
How do crises reshape global orders? Over realist, liberal and constructivist perspectives, IR and IPE approaches cast crises as “exogenous shocks” that serve as mechanisms of self-reinforcing change. However, such analyses are limited to the extent that they obscure endogenous sources of crisis and the often-prolonged nature of subsequent change. In this paper, I argue that these limitations reflect the weight of rationalist assumptions that span ostensibly-diverse paradigmatic perspectives – as rationalist premises obscure both the endogenous source of crises and the impediments to self-correcting adjustment. To provide an alternative approach, I argue for a quantum constructivist perspective, as one capable of providing insight into these endogenous sources of crisis and instability. First, highlighting the limits to rationalist assumptions regarding efficiency in the use of information, I adopt a quantum-inspired view of ontological uncertainty as rooted in incompatible ideas that cannot be held simultaneously. Second, highlighting the limits to rationalist assumptions regarding the consistency of preferences, I argue that incompatible ideas can in turn give rise to inconsistent contextual expectations – as ideational “order effects” can see presentation orders shape preference orders. Finally, given incompatible ideas and inconsistent preferences, I argue that as agents become more certain about one set of ideas, they may become uncertain about others – and so accommodate increasing instability and deferred adjustment. In political economy terms, I draw on Keynesian insights regarding the frequent incompatibility of “reform” and “recovery” priorities, and the role of sustained debate in enabling their reconciliation – suggesting that the current moment of crisis remains unlikely to engender the emergence of a durable new order.