Dr Alexander Korolev1
1University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Biography:
Alexander Korolev is a Senior Lecturer in Politics and International relations in the School of Social Sciences at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. His research interests include international relations theory and comparative politics with special reference to China and Russia, great power politics, and how small and middle powers can survive and secure their national interests amidst intensifying great power rivalry. His recent articles have appeared in various peer-reviewed journals, including International Relations, Foreign Policy Analysis, International Studies Review, Journal of Strategic Studies, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Pacific Affairs, Asian Security, and other journals.
Abstract:
How can smaller powers use hedging to navigate the intensifying great power rivalry? Why can some smaller powers hedge successfully between competing great powers while others fail and suffer serious harm? Despite its popularity in the literature on smaller states’ behaviour, hedging remains an inchoate term. This article answers these questions and contributes to the field by discerning and specifying two distinct modes of hedging – “risk mitigation” and “benefit maximisation” – and their implications for hedging outcomes under different structural conditions. It argues that while these two modes might seem similar, and the extant literature has so far failed to separate them conceptually, they have different operational logics and can have different consequences for the hedging states faced with intensifying great power rivalry. Hedging as risk mitigation emphasises maintaining equal distance from the competing great powers, whereas hedging as benefit maximisation requires pursuing equally deep engagement with those powers. This research demonstrates the two concepts using the cases of smaller powers in Southeast Asia as well as Australia that are exposed to US-China rivalry. To flash out the concepts further, it compares these cases with smaller states in the post-Soviet space and further argues that as great power rivalry intensifies, a transition from the benefit maximisation into the risk mitigation mode of hedging can help minimise the chances of hedging failure and reduce the level of threats posed by great powers.