Dr Thomas Stubbs1, Dr Alexandros Kentikelenis2
1Royal Holloway, University of London, United Kingdom, 2Bocconi University, Italy
Biography:
Thomas Stubbs is Reader in Global Political Economy at Royal Holloway, University of London, and Research associate in political economy at the Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge. His research focuses on lending, surveillance, and capacity development activities of international financial institutions. His first book, A Thousand Cuts: Social Protection in the Age of Austerity (with A. Kentikelenis), was published in 2023 by Oxford University Press. His work has appeared in leading academic journals, such as American Journal of Sociology, BMJ Global Health, Review of International Political Economy, Review of International Organizations, Social Science & Medicine, and World Development.
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)—central actor in global economic governance and world’s lender of last resort to countries in economic crisis—has recently positioned itself at the forefront of policy debates over climate change and the green transition. In recognizing the macro-critical nature of climate risks and integrating climate considerations into lending and surveillance activities, the IMF has taken steps towards addressing the intertwined challenges of revenue mobilization, debt sustainability, and climate change. Are these developments revealing of a new, climate-friendly modus operandi? Or is it business-as-usual with a façade of greenery? We examine the scope of IMF involvement in green transition objectives since 2022, when its new Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) was introduced. Based on a novel dataset of climate-related conditionality from 18 RSFs and 45 traditional loans, as well as nine case studies spanning RSF loans (Bangladesh, Kenya, Senegal), traditional loans (Argentina, Pakistan, Uganda), and surveillance missions (Colombia, Indonesia, South Africa), we characterize the IMF’s response to climate change as an incoherent mix of—respectively—organizational innovation, resistance, and experimentation. As a result, IMF activities remain inconsistent with enabling countries to transition away from fossil fuels and achieve national climate adaptation and mitigation objectives.