Embracing interdependence despite risks: Vietnam's tolerance of economic interdependence with China

Ms Hanh Nguyen1

1Australian National University, Acton, Canberra, Australia

Biography:

Hanh Nguyen is a PhD Candidate at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, Australian National University. Her research interests include economic security, regional security architecture, Southeast Asia and Vietnam.

Abstract:

Lingering historical animosity and growing tensions in the South China Sea have put China-Vietnam relations to the test. Simultaneously, bilateral economic engagements continue to flourish despite tensions. Existing IR theories expect Vietnam to either reduce its economic interdependence with China or accommodate China’s interests in the South China Sea. However, Hanoi continues to embrace trade and investments from China but remains defiant on the South China Sea. What explained Vietnam’s continued toleration of economic interdependence with China despite security risks? The paper argues that a series of crises in the 1980s triggered a shift in Vietnam's perceptions of economic security. During the Vietnam War, Hanoi prioritized military power as the sole guarantee for regime security. However, an economic crisis, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a two-front conflict with China threatened the communist regime's survival and compelled Vietnam to adopt a comprehensive security perspective that recognizes the importance of economic development in maintaining regime security and state sovereignty. Thus, Hanoi started prioritizing economic growth and development over military affairs, which required it to normalize diplomatic relations and facilitate economic engagement with China. This perspective remains primary despite the impact of other external shocks, including the 2014 oil rig dispute in the South China Sea and the US-China trade war. The paper offers a nuanced account of Vietnam's economic security perspective and its implications for foreign policy. It also shows that Hanoi has responded to emerging geoeconomic trends through continued adherence to the comprehensive security concept.